Good comment by Arther Hill

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has been trading between 110 and 123 since early August (seven weeks). During this timeframe, the ETF has crossed the midpoint (116.50) at least 11 times. There have also been nine swings of at least five percent. This is more than one swing per week! Such a volatile consolidation is not enough to affect medium-term trend, which is down after the August breakdown. However, it is producing sizable short-term swings. The only way to make money short-term is to buy immediately after the upturn and sell the immediately after the downturn. Sometimes chartists can use a trendline or support/resistance level to identify a short-term reversal.

好的开端是成功的一半

我9/16和9/19作了两次TZA的交易，都以失败告终。 究其原因，首先是minor  trend 的拐点没找对，但错误的入市点也是重要原因。就拿9/19这次来讲，TZA已到拐点了，但9/19明摆着是一个大波动的日子，至少要观察2小时后才能决定limit  order 的价格，或要以开市价减1/2*ATR 作为limit order的价格。可是我在10 点钟看1-minute  chart 上价格一路攀升，就以$43.65 买了一百股，后来掉到$43.43 时又买了一百股。  后来一度掉到$41.8.  后来被迫以42.00 卖掉。 假如我能在最低时买进，或以开市价减1/2 ATR ($2) limit order, 大约是41.8-42.0 买进，情况就大不一样了。对大多数人来说，遇到这样当天就巨大亏损，心理上和信心上肯定会受到打击，甚至崩溃，这就不能对市场作出客观的判断。 就好象打仗一样，一旦军队的信心动摇了，就可能导致兵败如山倒。 不可不记住这个教训。     

lesson

My recent failure is due to my trade is against the secondary trend and having no idea of minor trend.  Rhete's system reminds me that 60-minute chart with 10-day ma and 5-day ma is a good minor trend indicator.  And now I am realized that current secondary trend is up but not down, which can be spotted by drawing trend line in daily chart. 

These guys in Stockcharts comment only primary trend.  This is easy to spot and easy to be right.  They don't comment on secondary and minor trends, which are more important to trade success but are more difficult to spot.  Some of their comments are confusing or wrong.    As secondary trend is up, I realized now we should pay attention to long than short.

经验教训

1.进场不能太急。 欲速则不达。 要等到60-minute chart 上MA5 开始转向，甚至与MA10相交了，histogram 信号确定， RSI信号确定后才能进场。
2.STOP 保护以防万一。 股票1.5%-2%，TAZ, TNA 3%-5%? 再想想。
3.进场前要扫描一下整个市场的新闻和走向。

再总结后再补充。